SULAIMANIYAH, Iraq - Iraq's autonomous Kurds go to the polls this summer in an election likely to redraw the local political map and bring factional violence to the region.
The two Kurdish parties that have dominated politics for decades will confront new challengers in the election for the regional parliament, including from their own ranks, and few expect them to bow out peacefully.
Some are looking to the rest of Iraq, which has weathered years of sectarian attacks and insurgent bombings since the 2003 US-led invasion, as a model after it held peaceful provincial elections at the start of the year.
"The Kurds need to learn the lesson and move towards the more civil and peaceful rivalries that prevailed among the different Iraqi factions," said Shaswar Karim, a 60-year-old shopkeeper in the city of Sulaimaniyah.
"What worries us is the beginning of the hurtful language and harsh accusations between the different lists and political powers in the media, which indicates there may soon be violence between the competing factions."
The last time elections to Kurdistan's parliament were held in 2005 the two main parties -- the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) led by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) of regional president Massud Barzani -- formed a joint list that won 80 of the 111 seats.
Ten seats are reserved for the region's Turkmen, Christian and Yazidi minorities. The Islamic Union of Kurdistan won nine seats, the Islamic Group of Kurdistan gained six seats, and three smaller left-wing parties won the remainder.
But this year's vote, expected in the second half of July, could snap the two main parties' virtual monopoly on power, veteran politicians say.
Jawhar Nameq Salem, the former head of the KDP's political office and the first speaker of the regional parliament, a post he held for eight years, said the autonomous regional government will have to rein in factional fighting.
"The two main parties are the ones which will resort to violence because they will lose a lot," he said. "I expect to see brave new faces."
The Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq, which supervised the country's provincial council elections in January, will oversee the vote and has certified 41 political entities, with one final application pending.
Those registered include a breakaway faction from the PUK, the "Change" list led by Talabani's former deputy Nushirwan Mustafa. His is a rare challenge to the decades-old political powerhouse that has alarmed PUK leaders.
"If they are looking for change then the two principle powers must form a united front. Change must begin from within their ranks," senior PUK official Saadi Ahmed Bira said.
The PUK will be holding a conference in June to discuss the internal differences, and it has already agreed to run again on a list with the KDP.
The PUK is expected to re-elect Talabani, 76, despite concerns about his health, the party leader having been regularly treated in Jordan and the United States in recent years for various ailments.
"The Patriotic Union and its leaders will re-elect Talabani to the post of secretary general because the Kurdish and Iraqi forces prefer Mum (Uncle) Jalal above all the others," Bira said, using a Kurdish title of respect.
"The health of the president is good, it's better than anyone's."
The two Islamic parties are anticipating an improved showing in the elections, but are fearful that the two secular parties may lash out at them.
"I am convinced that the Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union will not win the same percentage they did in 2005," said Ali Babir, the head of the Islamic Group.
"The Islamic awakening and the religious current is growing and spreading," he added.
Hiwa Mirza Saber, head of the Muslim Brotherhood-inspired Islamic Union, said he shared the grim outlook.
"The situation demands caution and alertness by the two principle parties," he said. "I call on the regional president (Barzani) to personally watch over the elections."
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