PARIS - The price of oil has risen to about 65 dollars a barrel because of uncertainty on all fronts and low spare production capacity in OPEC, but underlying likely growth of world demand remains unchanged, the IEA said on Thursday.
However, high prices had so far had only a "limited" effect in reducing demand and fortunately had not reversed economic growth, the International Energy Agency said.
The IEA held steady its forecast for growth of overall demand at 1.60 million barrels per day this year and 1.78 million barrels next year, allowing for an easing of apparent demand for oil in China and a small upward adjustment for US demand.
The agency highlighted apparent contradictions in some statistical trends owing in part to downward revisions of past demand figures.
It said that although the surge of oil prices had caused a "limited" fall in demand and had led consumers to turn to other sources of energy, high prices "have not completely choked off oil demand growth".
It added: "Neither (so far) has the impact been sufficient to reverse economic growth and that is no bad thing."
Signs were emerging that oil companies were increasing spending on investment.
Meanwhile, stocks of oil had increased "rapidly" in the first half of this year despite high prices, but the market "clearly" took the view "that more inventories are needed until investment responses catch up and demand patterns are clearer."
But one problem was "wariness on the part of OPEC members to overinvest in spare capacity".
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries had increased its supply of oil in July by 285,000 barrels per day to 19.6 million barrels owing to increased production by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq.
Estimated demand for oil from OPEC members was steady at 28.2 million barrels this year, although it would rise to 29.2 million barels per day in the fourth quarter.
However the IEA revised upwards its estimate for demand for OPEC oil next year to 28.3 million barrels per day.
The IEA repeated earlier explanations that many factors, several of them being liable to change quickly such as hurricane weather and other disruptions of supply in North America and the North Sea, affected real and perceived supply patterns.
Stocks held by industry in all 30 members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development had changed little in June from the May figure, but in the second quarter they had increased by 1.32 million barrels per day, or to 420,000 barels per day above the five-year average.
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