COPENHAGEN - Apparently homegrown Muslim terror plots such as those uncovered in Germany and in neighbouring Denmark this week will continue to be hatched for years to come, according to Danish expert Martin Harrow.
"People who are disillusioned will gravitate towards Islamist militancy and political violence," Harrow told Adnkronos International (AKI). He is a terrorism researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS).
Harrow said Germany's deployment of 3,000 troops in Afghanistan might have contributed to the radicalisation the three German converts to Islam and the Turkish citizen arrested on Tuesday on suspicion of planning massive attacks on Frankfurt airport and the US military base in Ramstein.
Similarly, Denmark's decision to contribute troops in Iraq, and the publication last year by Danish daily Jllyands Posten of cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed could have played a role in radicalising the eight Muslim suspects arrested in Denmark late on Monday.
Discrimination experienced by Muslims in the European countries they live in may also play in their radicalisation, according to Harrow.
"But there is no clear relationship between injustices in the world, lack of opportunities and political violence," he said.
The Danish and the German plots appear to be 'homegrown', i.e. "not initiated or planned in the caves of Tora Bora in Afghanistan," said Harrow.
Danish and German security services both said there had been international cooperation in their respective anti-terror operations.
"This makes it plausible there may have been some kind of connection," said Harrow, commenting on speculation that there may have been a link between the Danish and German arrests.
"It is hard to imagine today a plot that doesn't branch out to other European countries," Harrow said. The Internet and web chatrooms are the main way that Muslim militants can enter into contact in different countries, he said.
Danish police said they believed the terror cell had direct connections with al-Qaeda. And German investigators said the three suspects arrested were members of the al-Qaeda linked Islamic Jihad Union and had trained in Pakistan.
Asked if he believed there could be an al-Qaeda link to the German and Danish plots and whether they may have been orchestrated by a 'Big Brother' in Pakistan or Afghanistan, Harrow said: "This is possibly the most interesting question."
Training in Pakistan does not necessarily mean training in an al-Qaeda camp, he noted. "Where were they trained and by whom?" he asked.
The number of videos al-Qaeda has released since 2001, the US military incursions into Afghanistan and the deployment of over 80,000 Pakistani troops to the border areas all appear to show its strength. But there is little evidence of direct al-Qaeda involvement in the recent plots in Europe, Harrow said.
"Despite hints of al-Qaeda involvement in the case of the July 2005 London bombings, the evidence is not carved in stone," he said.
More details of the foiled Danish plot and its possible al-Qaeda links should emerge when the two of the suspects appear in court in three weeks time, Harrow said.
All the men arrested in the Greater Copenhagen area of Denmark are aged 19-29 and are of Pakistani , Somali and Turkish and Afghan origins. Six are Danish citizens and the other two are legal residents.
They are suspected of planning what police said they believe was an al-Qaida supported attack on unspecified targets.
(AKI)
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