The US-led coalition waging war against Al-Qaeda committed a "major blunder" by invading Iraq, a leading terrorism expert in Britain has said on the eve of the third anniversary of the September 11 attacks in the United States.
However, the seemingly dire situation in Iraq today does not undermine the fact that the radical Islamic network "can be defeated in the long term," Paul Wilkinson said at the University of Saint Andrews in Scotland.
Wilkinson, a professor of international relations, directs the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, the first institute in Britain to specialise in the terrorist phenomenon.
He said the March 2003 invasion of Iraq, which under Saddam Hussein "didn't have anything to do with Al-Qaeda," amounted to a "gratuitous propaganda gift" to Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.
"Al-Qaeda could portray the invasion as an act of Western imperialism against the Muslim world," he explained. "More recruits could be mobilised for the holy war."
The organisation also profited, after the fall of Saddam, from "a strategic opportunity" in an Iraq which fell prey to insurrection and anarchy.
"Iraq became a honey pot" for terrorists, Wilkinson said.
"Thousands of civilian and military targets were suddenly made available in a country without effective border controls, surrounded by Muslim countries with Al-Qaeda militants within their populations."
As was underlined by the US Senate in its report on the September 11 attacks, a comparable if not worse terrorist attack remains possible in the West.
But, in Wilkinson's eyes, the main risk today involves the US-led coalition deflecting vital funding and military resources away from Afghanistan because of its commitments in Iraq.
"The fall of the Taliban deprived Al-Qaeda of its territorial base," Wilkinson said. "Al-Qaeda, in alliance with Taliban and local warlords, is creeping back its influence, especially in areas bordering Pakistan and in the southeast of Afghanistan."
In spite of "major blunders", the US-led campaign against terrorism has achieved some "undeniable successes" since 2001, said the expert.
These included the swift toppling of the Taliban regime in Kabul, the blocking of millions of dollars of terrorist funds, and the arrest of hundreds of suspected experienced militants, he said.
"I am convinced that we would have had many more people killed since 2001 if there had not been that much better level of cooperation between the security services," he said.
France, despite falling out with the United States over the Iraq war, "is a very important help in the struggle against groups linked to Al-Qaeda ... and other islamist groups in Europe," he added.
Al-Qaeda will continue "to pose a very serious problem" to the West, and also Muslim countries, he said.
"Terror wars are particularly difficult to terminate," he said, adding however that they can be won in the long term "if we can prevent foolish overreactions and spread a democratic vision across the Muslim world".
Established in 1994, Wilkinson's independently-financed centre aims to analyse political violence around the world, provide theory on its impact, and propose responses to it.
"People imagine it's very fashionable to study terrorism," Wilkinson said. "They're terribly mistaken. Even since September 11, support for such research has been modest, except in the United States."
"It is surprising that even after 35 years of continuous terrorist activity around the world, terrorist studies remain a rather neglected area."
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