It was in 1972, twelve days before the November presidential election, that National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger made his surprise announcement that peace was at hand. Although President Richard Nixon had promised to end the Vietnam War four years earlier, he had failed and expanded the conflict into neighboring Laos and Cambodia. Nixon’s and Kissinger’s sudden October declaration - that peace was at hand with North Vietnam - was enough to turn their fledgling re-election campaign into a victory.
Because of this, Americans expect an October Surprise - an event that takes place every four years during October, and has the potential to alter the outcome of a presidential election. Lately, though, and every year instead of every four years, it seems there has been an October Surmise. The Latest surmise - a gut feeling or assumption based on emotion instead of facts, and which often leads to erroneous and fatal conclusions - concerns Iran’s peaceful quest to develop nuclear power.
It was no surprise, then, when US and Israeli officials insisted that the disclosure of Iran’s second nuclear enrichment facility proves it “wants to equip itself with nuclear weapons.” And even though the US knew about the facility for several years, it was no shock that it reacted with fear and outrage. In fact, it seems October Surmises have become global these days with US allies accusing Iran of committing “serial deception for many years,” and that the “international community has no choice than to draw a line in the sand.
But never mind the facts, or the use of reason, or that the United Nations is monitoring Iran‘s nuclear facilities. In America, surmises have become much more exciting than waiting and practicing patience. In fact, in 2001, an October Surmise occurred when then-President George W. Bush ordered the massive invasion and occupation of Central Asia. In October 2002, he sent US troops to occupy the Horn of Africa. In 2003, Bush claimed to have a “gut feeling” again that Iraq’s Saddam Hussein was hiding weapons of mass destruction. As a result of this surmise, he ordered yet another invasion.
Fortunately, IAEA Director General Mohamed El Baradei believes the 2003 US invasion of Iraq was as an example of blood needlessly shed, and has urged restraint in dealing with Iran. He also said the war in Iraq was not justified, since Saddam Hussein had no weapons of mass destruction. According to El Bareidi: “If history has taught us anything, it is surely that force rarely solves problems.” Iran also claims it built the new installation to provide civilian electricity, and was keeping it secret only due to continued threats and imminent attacks from Israel and the US
Possibly, one of the most positive developments has been the election of President Barack Obama. Instead of depending on those October Surmises-gut instincts, he appears to be rational and cautious. Already, President Obama has demonstrated a hesitancy in sending more US troops to Afghanistan. He also shows an unwillingness to directly, or indirectly (through Israel), strike Iran. And even though it is unclear what the Geneva Talks will produce (in the long term), Iran proclaimed a “calm atmosphere” prevailed.
But in America, things can quickly change. The American Enterprise called for a First-Strike Doctrine against Iran. Defense Secretary Robert Gates remains convinced that Iran is trying to produce nuclear weapons. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said there was no piece of evidence the Iranian government could possibly present which would convince US officials that their civilian nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes. And Republicans in Congress are calling for crippling sanctions against Iran and an attack.
It seems this years October Surmise has come and gone, at least for now. But the tragic thing about those October Surmises are they never end, especially since they consist of emotions and feelings which can easily be manipulated by the mass media and corporate warriors. This is why October Surmises are so perilous. But thank God for nations that reject October Surmises and express a readiness to work with the U.N. for processing nuclear fuel. And thank God for nations that declare nuclear weapons an abomination.
If only the US, and other nuclear powers, would cooperate and do the same.
Dallas Darling is the author of Politics 501: An A-Z Reading on Conscientious Political Thought and Action, Some Nations Above God: 52 Weekly Reflections On Modern-Day Imperialism, Militarism, And Consumerism in the Context of John‘s Apocalyptic Vision, and The Other Side Of Christianity: Reflections on Faith, Politics, Spirituality, History, and Peace. He is a correspondent for www.worldnews.com.You can read more of his articles at www.beverlydarling.com and wn.com//dallasdarling.
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