International diplomacy intensifies to stabilise Lebanon, avert conflict

BEIRUT – Lebanon has emerged at the centre of a flurry of diplomatic activity in recent weeks, with Arab and international envoys converging on the capital amid growing fears of escalating conflict across the Middle East. Observers say the diplomatic momentum reflects renewed international interest in stabilising Lebanon, either through a comprehensive political settlement or by insulating it from potential regional clashes, particularly given the heightened risk of confrontation between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other.

The surge in high-level visits began last week with Jordanian Prime Minister Jafar Hassan, who pledged full support for Lebanon’s sovereignty, stability and state-building efforts, signing 21 cooperation agreements in various sectors. On the same day, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun met representatives of the Quintet Committee, Saudi Arabia, France, Qatar, Egypt and the United States, to discuss preparations for an international conference in Paris in March to bolster Lebanon’s army and security forces.

The committee, established to help Lebanon navigate its political and economic crises, is seen as a key vehicle for advancing reforms and reinforcing the state’s authority. The diplomatic momentum continued with meetings between Lebanese Army Commander Rodolphe Haykal and senior international figures, including Saudi Foreign Ministry adviser Prince Yazid bin Farhan and French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, to coordinate the upcoming Paris conference and assess security developments in Lebanon.

European engagement also intensified: on January 9, European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Beirut after returning from Syria, emphasising the need for Lebanon to maintain a monopoly on armed force and receive international support during this critical period.

The diplomatic push follows a series of contentious decisions on domestic security. In August, the Lebanese government passed a law aiming to centralise all weapons under state control, including those of Hezbollah. The army’s phased plan to implement the law, announced in September, has been met with rejection from Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Naim Qassem, who insists that Israel withdraw from Lebanese territory. Meanwhile, Israeli media continue to report plans for a potential large-scale strike against Hezbollah if Lebanon fails to disarm the group.

Iran has also sought to reaffirm its influence. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, visiting Beirut on January 8, accused Israel of ongoing ceasefire violations and signalled Tehran’s readiness for both military and diplomatic engagement, amid US-mediated talks to avoid potential regional conflict.

Security experts stress the urgency of the situation. Analyst Mounir al-Rabih highlighted that Europe’s diplomatic visits aim to stabilise Lebanon as UNIFIL’s mandate approaches its end later this year, exploring options for a European force in southern Lebanon to maintain security along the Israeli border. Rabih said the Quintet’s efforts are tied to pushing Lebanon toward a political settlement, reinforcing state authority and persuading Hezbollah to participate, particularly regarding the centralisation of weapons under the state.

Economic reforms also remain pivotal. Lebanon’s parliament recently approved a financial gap resolution law, aimed at restructuring the nation’s debt and aligning with IMF requirements, though approval depends on political consensus amid a deeply divided legislature. Analysts stress that progress on security, economic, and political fronts, including parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2026, are interdependent and require a comprehensive political settlement rooted in the 1989 Taif Agreement.

Political commentator Alan Sarkis noted that Lebanon’s renewed diplomatic attention stems from its strategic location and the ongoing Israeli-Hezbollah tensions. He described Beirut as entering a period of intense diplomacy, intended either to lay the groundwork for a major political settlement in Lebanon and the region or to prevent a regional escalation involving Iran or Israeli strikes against Hezbollah.

Sarkis concluded that the coming weeks will be decisive, with Lebanon striving, supported by France, the United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, to maintain distance from potential regional conflicts, even as it continues to reflect broader trends across the Middle East.