Rouhani lashes out at military miscalculations in Iran

TEHRAN –

Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani sparked widespread debate with his recent statements, revealing the extent of misinformation and flawed assessments that Iranian decision-makers relied upon regarding the country’s military capabilities, particularly in relation to traditional adversaries such as Israel and the United States.

During a meeting with deputy ministers from his eleventh and twelfth administrations on Wednesday, Rouhani acknowledged that some trusted officials, roughly a decade to a decade and a half ago, were living in a “delusion of power.” They believed the likelihood of an Israeli or US attack on Iran was nearly zero and assumed that any strike would swiftly destroy the enemy, he said.  According to Rouhani, these officials even claimed that Iran could easily kill tens of thousands of US soldiers, though he did not disclose their identities or positions, stressing that ultimate responsibility lies with the country’s top leadership.

Rouhani stated that providing “false calculations” to the leadership constitutes one of the highest forms of betrayal, noting that relying on such overly optimistic assessments led to strategic decisions based on misleading information. He added that the crisis is exacerbated by conflicting opinions within the government, where “everyone says what they like,” creating chaos and hindering the effective handling of national issues.

He pointed out that the recent 12-day Israeli war exposed the limits of Iran’s military power on the ground, disproving many of the claims promoted by the Revolutionary Guard regarding its ability to strike Israel or the United States. Rouhani added that the airspace above Israel and Iran is “completely safe for the enemy,” highlighting the weakness of the deterrence that Tehran had previously boasted about in official statements and public pronouncements.

The former president stressed that this internal disarray has major implications for national security and foreign policy, arguing that Iran’s top leadership needs to take concrete steps to assess the situation objectively rather than relying on exaggerated figures or inaccurate estimates from advisers.

He also emphasised that decision-making chaos and misinformation regarding military strength damage Iran’s regional and international standing, and that addressing economic and livelihood crises cannot succeed in the absence of accurate intelligence and control over security risk assessments.

Rouhani’s comments represent a rare acknowledgment by a prominent Iranian figure of deliberate exaggeration and misinformation concerning military capabilities, highlighting the level of distortion that prevailed within the Iranian system in recent years. Experts suggest that these admissions could reignite debate over the credibility of Iran’s military strength and its defensive strategies, especially after the recent conflict exposed the limitations of its capabilities compared with prior claims.

His statements come at a time when Iran is facing mounting internal and external pressures, with economic, political and security challenges intensifying, making a realistic assessment of military capabilities more urgent than ever.