As Kurds and Shiites in Iraq push for a federal constitution, fears are rising in the Arab world that the urge to create separate states could spread in countries with religious and ethnic minorities, analysts said.
When minority groups feel oppressed or deem that their rights are restricted by the centralised states in which they live, they are drawn to notions of autonomy or federalism so that they can better exercise their rights, Arab experts said.
Therefore, the Arab world is keeping a close eye on the outcome of demands for a federalist Iraq as it creates its first constitution since the fall of ex-dictator Saddam Hussein, said Nabil Abdel-Fattah, an analyst from Cairo's Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.
"The result of the fight - between Sunnis who are against federalism in Iraq and Kurds who are for it - will have a decisive influence on how other countries' crises play out, from west of Asia to the Middle East and Iran," he said.
"Federalism was not one of the concepts in the Arab political dictionary, until now," he said.
The United Arab Emirates is presently the only federal state in the gulf region. Its system was installed by late ruler Sheikh Zayed.
Sudan has applied a mild form of federalism for several years, whose unfulfilled objective was to suppress demands by ethnic groups in the south and in the western Darfur and Kordofan regions.
The trend toward federalism, if it catches on, could incite minorities - from Berbers in north Africa to various ethnic and religious groups in Lebanon to the sizeable Kurdish populations in Syria, Turkey and Iran - to seek their own states, said Hassan al-Barari, a researcher at Amman's Center for Strategic Studies.
"In developing countries, federalism amounts to a step toward splitting up," Barari said.
"Ethnic groups in Arab countries are hiding behind federalism or liberalism, but what they are in fact seeking is the dismantling of the united state, such as the Kurds, who want to see an end to the Iraqi state drawn up in 1921," he said.
Kurds were denied a nation of their own when the British drew up the contemporary map of the Middle East more than eighty years ago, and tens of millions were absorbed into Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria, where they lived as oft-oppressed minorities for decades.
In Iraq, thousands of Kurds were killed under Saddam's regime and tens of thousands forced from their homes.
"Based on their experiences under the centralised Iraqi state, Kurds are striving toward splitting up Iraq. They are currently in an ideal situation. They have a historic opportunity to get out of Iraq by leaning on their good relations with the United States, Israel and the West," Barari said.
According to Barari, Iraq's neighbours Syria, Turkey and Iran, which all have sizeable Kurdish populations, "won't be able to prevent the birth of a Kurdish State on the ruins of Iraq, which will be recognised by the United Nations and the international community."
"The biggest loser in this matter would be Turkey, where 16 million Kurds live," said Barari, adding that "Iran would be equally concerned because it has Kurdish, Arab and other minorities."
However, Kurdish leaders have repeatedly vowed in recent months that they do not intend to split off from Iraq, as long as their rights are recognised and they are able to maintain the degree of autonomy they have enjoyed for more than a decade.
Kurdish negotiators involved in wrangling over Iraq's future constitution have also indicated they would be flexible on demands for autonomy if it were to prove a major stumbling point in the process.
Still, Barari said, "the federalism bug, if it takes hold in Iraq, will spread fatally to complex societies like Lebanon, where each (ethnic and religious) community is going to demand it, saying it is necessary to defend their own interests," Barari said.
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