US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has predicted an early overthrow of the Iranian government by its own people, or its collapse amid mounting problems and internal strife.
But the forecast, made Wednesday during a radio call-in show, came in response to a question on whether the administration of President George W. Bush planned to move on to Iran after achieving its goal of "regime change" in Iraq.
Therefore, it appeared to signal that the administration saw no need to resort to overt or covert military measures to topple the regime in Tehran, because it expected it to tumble under its own weight.
"I suspect that during my lifetime we're going to see a change in that situation over there and that the young people and the women and the people who believe in freedom will overthrow that cleric government and it will fall in some way of its own weight," Rumsfeld said on "The Mike Gallagher Show."
The defense secretary, who turned 70 in July, called Iran "an interesting place" controlled by "a very small clique of clerics."
"And the women and the young people don't agree with how it's being run," he insisted.
Iranian officials have been expressing heightened concern that if Washington decides to invade Iraq and maintain its military presence in Afghanistan, their country will end up sandwiched between two sizable contingents of US troops.
Iranian Defense Minister Rear-Admiral Ali Shamkhani aired these worries earlier Wednesday, when he warned Iranians to be prepared for the possibility of a US attack.
"The US government wants to reorganize the region and as a consequence Iran could constitute a target," Shamkhani said. "If the Americans are in both Afghanistan and Iraq, this represents a significant challenge."
Rumsfeld's prediction appeared to be at odds with earlier conclusions by the Central Intelligence Agency, which said "a slow transformation" of Iranian society was more likely than a violent cataclysm.
In an analysis sent to members of Congress last April and made public Monday, the CIA noted that the Iranian public was "losing faith in the ballot box as an engine of reform," because of hardball tactics by the conservative clergy.
But the US spy agency said that despite widespread anti-government sentiment, the current regime in Tehran appeared to be stable for now.
"Security forces have easily contained dissenters, the public does not appear ready to take to the streets, and no charismatic leader has emerged capable of mobilizing a large cross-section of the population," the CIA said.
At the same time, the agency pointed out that social and demographic shifts in Iran favored the reformers, and over time a new generation of leaders was likely to emerge.
"Although a rapid upheaval is possible, the most likely scenario is a slow transformation of the political process into a more open system," the CIA concluded.
Meanwhile, the State Department, in a similar report to Congress, played down expectations current Iranian President Mohammad Khatami could push through needed reforms.
"In failing to make good on reformist promises, Khatami thus has lost much personal credibility at home - both as a formidable adversary among his conservative opponents, and as the champion of change among the general public," the department said.
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